A century of social wasp occupancy trends from natural history collections: spatiotemporal resolutions have little effect on model performance

The current dearth of long-term insect population trends is a major obstacle to conservation. Occupancy models have been proposed as solution, but it remains unclear whether they can yield from natural history collections, since specimen records are normally very sparse. A common approach for sparse data coarsen its spatial and/or temporal resolution, although coarsening risks violating model assumptions. We (i) test occupancy three social wasp (Hymenoptera: Vespidae: Vespinae) species – the (Vespula vulgaris), German germanica) and European hornet (Vespa crabro) changed in England between 1900 2016, (ii) effect spatiotemporal resolution on performance using data. All based an integrated dataset occurrence collection records. show that species-specific specimens. present first quantitative Vespinae over 116 years. Vespula vulgaris V. germanica stable time series, whilst crabro's decreased 1950 1970 increased 1970. Moreover, we has little performance, grain appropriate method achieving enough estimate changes. With increasing availability biological records, formulation used here potential provide novel insights by making use collections' unique assemblages.